Jack Horsman

2/6/17

Louisville Post Season Preview

The Louisville Cardinals enter this week's basketball tournament as the number 4 seed.  Being the number 4 seed, they already surpass the first and second rounds, and don't play a game until the quarterfinals on Thursday, March 9.  Louisville sits at 12-6 in the ACC, with an overall record of 24-7.  They will play either number 5 Duke, or the winner of the game between number 12 Clemson and number 13 North Carolina State.  They beat all three teams earlier this year, with the closest game being a 78-69 win over Duke.  No matter who Louisville plays on Thursday, they will win and move on to the semifinals.

Earlier in the season Louisville beat Clemson 92-60, and North Carolina State 85-60.  Louisville beat Clemson by 32 points, with starting point guard Quentin Snider out of the lineup due to a strained hip.  Louisville beat North Carolina State by 25 points, with not only Snider out, but also guard Tony Hicks.  In Louisville's win against Duke, the game was closer than the score indicates.  The lead changed 7 times, and the score was tied another 5 times.  If Clemson or North Carolina State manage to win two straight games to set up a matchup with Louisville in the quarterfinals, Louisville will easily beat either of them.  Louisville is a much better team than both of those two.  If Louisville ends up playing against Duke, which is most likely, that game should be a good back and forth game.  However Duke will be tired from their probable close game against Clemson/North Carolina State.  But, one game isn't enough to get the team into a good rhythm where they are firing on all cylinders and fell like they could beat just about anyone.  Because Louisville will have that one extra day of rest as well, they should beat Duke and advance to play in the semifinals.

In the semifinals Louisville will play either North Carolina, Syracuse or Miami.  The quarterfinal matchup will be North Carolina against the winner of Syracuse and Miami.  If Miami beats Syracuse, then it should be a good game.  Miami beat North Carolina a month ago, by a score of 77-62.  North Carolina will be out for revenge against Miami.  Four of North Carolina's starters this year were members of the team that made it to the national championship game last year.  Those players remember what it felt like to lose, and that feeling has been pushing them all year long and will push them past Miami in what should be a close game if Miami can beat Syracuse.  If Syracuse beats Miami, then North Carolina should definitely beat them.  On January 16 North Carolina beat Syracuse by a score of 85-68.  North Carolina should be able to repeat a similar performance, and come out with a win that wasn't ever really in question.

In a presumed semifinal matchup between Louisville and North Carolina, North Carolina should be able to come out with a win.  North Carolina has the 9^th highest scoring offense in the nation, at 84.6 points per game, while Louisville is 36^th in scoring, allowing 65.4 per game, but 73.e over their last three games.  Part of the reason that North Carolina scores so many points a game is rebounding.  Rebounds and second chance points will be the name of the game in this matchup.  North Carolina leads the nation in rebounds with 43.5 per game, and Louisville is 15^th in the nation at 39.8 per game.  North Carolina and Louisville are the two best teams in the nation when it comes to effective possessions, with North Carolina at 1.024 and Louisville at 1.016.  Neither team is very good at containing their opponents' effectiveness in possessions, North Carolina is ranked 91^st with 0.924, and Louisville is ranked 115^th with 0.930.  The teams are close together when it comes to rebounding, effective possessions, and opponents' effective possessions, but North Carolina holds an edge in all three, plus is one of the best offenses in the nation, so Louisville will not advance past the semifinals in the ACC tournament.

When the NCAA tournament comes around, Louisville is pretty much locked in. They should get a 2 or 3 seed depending on the outcome of the conference tournaments and be positioned to make a run, pending an upset.